Myth: Climate research can be ignored because of past or current exaggerations.

​Over the decades, media and certain scientists have greatly exaggerated the speed and magnitude of the impact from climate change. Essentially, they have been catastrophizing. For example, the renowned physicist John Holdren proposed in the 1980s that human-caused climate change could kill a billion people because of famine by the year 2020 [1]. Such proposals have no credibility because they are purely speculative, i.e., they are not based on robust science [2]. The global scientific community does NOT support such proposals.

The global scientific community does support the general conclusions from the climate science community [3]. Why? Because the findings of the climate experts are based on extensive research. Thousands of climate scientists have gathered vast amounts of climate data using a suite of climate monitoring tools [4,5,6]. The scientists have used the climate data and established scientific principles to understand the climate system. These studies have been documented in over a hundred thousand scientific papers [7].

Many climate impacts are now understood with high to very high confidence because of these studies [8]. For example, there is strong evidence for the rising temperatures and sea levels, receding glaciers, ocean acidification, and the increasing frequency and intensity of hot extremes. Consequently, an overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that human-caused climate change is a serious problem [9,10,11].

Significant uncertainty yet exists in understanding several other issues about climate change because of inadequate data [8]. However, the climate impacts that are understood with high confidence are by themselves adequate to demonstrate that human-caused climate change is a serious problem.

Wild exaggerations by media or certain scientists do not change the validity of these conclusions. We will consider an analogy. The medical community has concluded that smoking tobacco is dangerous to human health based on extensive research [12,13]. Wild exaggerations by a few doctors–made in the past, present, or future–do not decrease the trustworthiness of the conclusion.

Summary: Wild speculations by certain scientists and media should not be used as an excuse to ignore critical findings from the global climate experts. The findings of the climate experts are based on extensive research. Consequently, major scientific organizations agree that human-caused climate change is a serious problem that requires urgent attention [14]. Wild exaggerations by media or certain scientists do not change the validity of these conclusion. 

References & Notes

1. Biodiversity. Chapter 2 by Paul Ehrlich. The cause of diversity losses and consequences. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK219310/
2. Robust science involves extensive research based on large amount of quality data or basic scientific principles that cannot be refuted.
3. Around 200 major global research organizations have provided official statements supporting that climate change is a serious problem that needs urgent attention. Some examples are provided below. Statement from the Commonwealth Academy. https://rsc-src.ca/sites/default/files/Commonwealth%20Academies%20Consensus%20Statement%20on%20Climate%20Change%20-%2012%20March%202018%20-%202.pdf  Statement from the National Academies. https://sites.nationalacademies.org/sites/climate/index.htm Statement from the American Association for Advancement of Science. https://whatweknow.aaas.org/get-the-facts/ Statement from the Joint Science Academies, https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/joint-science-academies-statements-on-global-issues
4. S. Weart, Proceedings of National Academy of Science (U.S.). 110, 3657 (2013). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3586608/
5. IPCC Reports: Six comprehensive IPCC reports that have been published to date. https://www.ipcc.ch/reports/
6. Google Scholar: Search Term “Climate science”. https://scholar.google.com
7. Google Scholar: Search Term “Climate change science”. https://scholar.google.com
8. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The Physical Science Basis. https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/
9. IPCC Comprehensive Reports: TAR-2001, AR4-2007, AR5-2014. https://www.ipcc.ch/reports/
10. NASA Global climate change. Scientific consensus: Earth’s climate is warming. https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/  
11. Note: The agreement is about climate change being a serious problem. There is no agreement that humanity is on the brink of destruction or that climate change is the most important problem facing humanity today.
12. Center of Disease Control and Prevention. Smoking and Tobacco use. Health effects. https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/basic_information/health_effects/index.htm
13. World Health organization factsheets: Tobacco. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco
14. Note: This article is not a comment on how the problem should be addressed. It simply states that catastrophizing by some should not be used to discredit the work of the entire scientific community. Individual articles cannot provide a complete perspective on such complex topics. For more information on other widespread misconceptions and a complete picture about climate and energy, refer to the book "Climate and Energy Decoded".